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In the aggregate, over fifteen years, Supreme Court decisions were responsible for more than 140 billion dollars in absolute changes in wealth. Across all cases decided by the Supreme Court of the United States between the 1999-2013 terms, we identify 79 cases where the share price of one or more publicly traded company moved in direct response to a Supreme Court decision. We demonstrate that, while certainly not present in every case, law on the market events are fairly common. Using intraday data and a multiday event window, this large scale event study seeks to determine the existence, frequency and magnitude of equity market impacts flowing from Supreme Court decisions.
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At an absolute minimum, four-moment CAPM gives mathematical voice to one of the key findings of prospect theory: the preference for skewed, lottery-like returns from actuarially unfavorable gambles.ĭaniel Martin Katz, Michael James Bommarito, Tyler Soellinger & James Ming Chen, Law on the Market? Evaluating the Securities Market Impact of Supreme Court Decisions, available at or :ĭo judicial decisions affect the securities markets in discernible and perhaps predictable ways? In other words, is there “law on the market” (LOTM)? This is a question that has been raised by commentators, but answered by very few in a systematic and financially rigorous manner.
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Critically, a four-moment CAPM transcends the limits of financial models that consider nothing beyond the mean and variance in the distribution of returns. A four-moment capital asset pricing model captures the emotional impact of odd and even moments of statistical distributions. This paper proposes a mathematically expedient way to alleviate this tension. As an applied branch of social science, law purports to subject human conduct to rules that should optimize objective well-being as well as subjective satisfaction. The tension between conventional asset pricing theory and behavioral economics puts particular pressure on law. In sharp contrast with the purely rational agents of neoclassical economics, real humans make decisions under the constraints imposed by their innate heuristics. At the same time, the neoclassical assumptions underlying the CAPM have come under severe attack by behavioral economics. The conventional capital asset pricing model (CAPM) remains the preferred approach to risk management in a wide range of economic settings. James Ming Chen, Momentary Lapses of Reason: The Psychophysics of Law and Behavior, available at or :